@misc{10326,
  author = {Erik L{\o}hre},
  title = {The (Weak) Link Between Hindsight Bias and Overconfidence in Predictions},
  abstract = {Hindsight bias has often been quoted as a reason for overconfidence in prediction. When people in retrospect believe that they knew all along that an outcome would happen, and feel that the outcome was inevitable and foreseeable, it follows that they should have an increased belief in their own ability to predict future events as well. However, there is little empirical evidence for the connection between hindsight and overconfidence. In this paper we investigated this link in the context of performance time predictions. In four experiments people were asked to estimate how much time different tasks would take with or without outcome knowledge. Hindsight bias was demonstrated quite clearly, replicating this robust phenomenon in a new setting. Hindsight participants were significantly more confident in subsequent predictions than control participants in two of four experiments, but the results from the two other experiments were mixed. These experiments therefore do not provide compelling evidence of a link between hindsight bias and overconfidence.},
  year = {2013},
  journal = {The 15th European Social Cognition Network Transfer of Knowledge Conference (ESCON 2013)},
  month = {August},
  publisher = {ESCON 2013},
  editor = {Claudia Yzerbyt},
}