@article{10653,
  author = {Magne J{\o}rgensen},
  title = {Selection of Effort Estimation Strategies},
  abstract = {We currently know little about the factors that motivate the selection and change of estimation strategy in judgment-based effort estimation context. A better understanding of these issues may lead to more accurate judgment-based effort estimates and motivates the four experiments reported in this paper. The experiments{\textquoteright} two main results are the identification of the importance of {\textquotedblleft}estimation surprises{\textquotedblright} (large estimation errors) to motivate estimation strategy change and the large individual variation in the initial choice of estimation strategy. The individual variation seems not only to be a result of differences in previous experiences, but also a result of differences in the mental {\textquotedblleft}accessibility{\textquotedblright} of the strategies. We found, for example, that the use of a strategy was increased when we instructed a developer to use the same type of strategy on unrelated tasks immediately before. The laboratory contexts of the studies means that the results should be interpreted as a first step towards more knowledge about expert estimation strategies and that there is a strong need for more studies, preferably in field situations, before recommending actions on the basis of the findings.},
  year = {2010},
  journal = {Journal of Systems and Software},
  volume = {83},
  number = {6},
  pages = {1039-1050},
}