@article{16298,
  author = {Magne J{\o}rgensen and Eban Escott},
  title = {Relative estimates of software development effort: Are they more accurate or less time-consuming to produce than absolute estimates, and to what extent are they person-independent?},
  abstract = {Context: Estimates of software development effort may be given as judgments of relationships between the use of efforts on different tasks {\textendash} that is, as relative estimates. The use of relative estimates has increased with the introduction of story points in agile software development contexts.

Objective: This study examines to what extent relative estimates are likely to be more accurate or less time-consuming to produce than absolute software development effort estimates and to what extent relative estimates can be considered developer-independent.

Method: We conducted two experiments. In the first experiment, we collected estimates from 102 professional software developers estimating the same tasks and randomly allocated to providing relative estimates in story points or absolute estimates in work-hours. In the second experiment, we collected the actual efforts of 20 professional software developers completing the same 5 programming tasks and used these to analyse the variance in relative efforts.

Results: The results from the first experiment indicates that the relative estimates were less accurate than the absolute estimates, and that the time consumed completing the estimation work was higher for those using relative estimation, even when only considering developers with extensive prior experience in story point{\textendash}based estimation for both tasks. The second experiment revealed that the relative effort was far from developer-independent, especially for the least productive developers. This suggests that relative estimates to a large extent are developer-dependent.

Conclusions: Although there may be good reasons for the continued use of relative estimates, we interpret our results as not supporting that the use of relative estimates is connected with higher estimation accuracy or less time consumed on producing the estimates. Neither do our results support a high degree of developer-independence in relative estimates.},
  year = {2022},
  journal = {Information and Software Technology},
  volume = {143},
  pages = {106782},
  month = {03/2022},
  publisher = {Wiley},
}