@misc{9764,
  author = {Stuart Clark},
  title = {Calculating Uncertainty in Geodynamic Models of Subduction},
  abstract = {Much work has been done in the forward simulation of subduction in geodynamic models. To understand the Earth\&$\#$39;s mantle structure, models often incorporate regional or global plate reconstructions. The location of mid-ocean ridges is defined by magnetic anomalies embedded in the sea-floor, but what about the location of subduction trenches? In this paper, I ask the question: What if there are inaccuracies in the trench location? The growth and propagation of uncertainty through the model domain is calculated using a statistical approach: the Probabilistic Collocation Method. The results indicate that the propagation and magnitude of uncertainty of the temperature solution is logarithmic in time. The logarithmic dependence means the increase in variance diminishes towards the present, representing the higher accuracy of the tectonic plate reconstructions the closer we are to the present day.},
  year = {2011},
  journal = {MODSIM 2011},
  publisher = {Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand},
}